โ ๏ธ ๐๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ป๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐น ๐๐๐ฑ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ผ๐บ๐บ๐ถ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฒ (๐๐๐) ๐๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ป๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฒ๐บ๐ถ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐
โ The UK Governmentโs plans for delivering net zero aviation are set out in the Jet Zero Strategy, published in 2022, which expects technological measures, like increasing fuel efficiency (improving by 2% each year) and the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels, to reduce emissions significantly each year.
๐ It claims it will keep these assumptions under review and consider whether further action is needed in future to meet net zero targets.
๐ For example, it does not rule out measures designed to reduce demand for flights, like a frequent flyer levy, if a future review suggests that new fuels and improved technology alone are not sufficiently reducing emissions.
๐ In its report the EAC had warned Ministers that demand management measures might need to be considered if reviews of the strategy show that it is not on track to deliver the emissions reductions expected.
๐ฃ Committee members called for the first review of the Jet Zero Strategy to be brought forward from 2027 to 2025 to determine whether the sector remains on track.
๐จโ๐ผ EAC member, Jerome Mayhew MP, said: โ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ฐ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฅ๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ข๐ฎ๐ฃ๐ช๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ช๐ด ๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ฏ๐ด๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ข๐ค๐ต๐ถ๐ข๐ญ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ถ๐ญ๐ต๐ด. ๐๐ง ๐ข ๐ง๐ถ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ท๐ช๐ฆ๐ธ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ฆ๐ต ๐ก๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฐ ๐๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ต๐ฆ๐จ๐บ โ ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ค๐ฉ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ช๐ต๐ต๐ฆ๐ฆ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ข๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ข๐ค๐ฆ ๐ฃ๐บ 2025 โ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ๐ด ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ด๐ถ๐ง๐ง๐ช๐ค๐ช๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐จ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ด ๐ช๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ฐ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ด๐ต ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ง๐ณ๐ข๐ช๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ต๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ช๐ฅ-๐ง๐ญ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฎ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ต๐ข๐ช๐ฏ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐จ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ๐ธ๐ข๐ณ๐ฅ๐ด ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ต ๐ป๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฐ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ด.โ
๐ฉโโ๏ธ The EAC’s positions are similar to that of Safe Landing, as we note that:
- The assumptions used in the Jet Zero models for aircraft efficiency improvements, alternative fuels, and negative emissions scale-up are overly optimistic and lack sufficient policy measures to accelerate progress.
- The scenarios for air traffic growth (more than 70% increase by 2050) far exceed the “balanced pathway” modelling from the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC), using more realistic assumptions, that air traffic growth should be limited to 25%.
- The CCC stated in their 2023 Progress Report to Parliament that โNo airport expansions should proceed until a UK-wide capacity management framework is in place to assess annually and, if required, control sector CO2 emissions and non-CO2 effects.โ
- There was a failure to model scenarios with demand management measures (airport / air traffic capacity or emissions controls) applied.
- The emissions pricing modelled was far too low, with no more realistic higher pricing scenarios.
Read our full responses to the UK Jet Zero consultation here: https://safe-landing.org/uk-jet-zero